中國(guó)石化新聞網(wǎng)訊 據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)1月12日消息稱，挪威研究機(jī)構(gòu)Rystad Energy的研究顯示，今年在低碳項(xiàng)目上的支出將增加600億美元，比2022年高出10%，主要是風(fēng)力開(kāi)發(fā)，但氫和碳捕獲、利用和存儲(chǔ)(CCUS)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的資金大幅增加。總支出的增長(zhǎng)比近年來(lái)有所放緩——平均每年增長(zhǎng)20%——因?yàn)槌杀疽庾R(shí)強(qiáng)的開(kāi)發(fā)商在經(jīng)歷了兩年的房?jī)r(jià)飆升后收緊了錢袋。

2022年，綠色行業(yè)的投資激增21%，首次超過(guò)相關(guān)的石油和天然氣支出，但受通脹影響的開(kāi)發(fā)商似乎將在今年遏制支出增長(zhǎng)。然而，隨著通脹壓力減弱，我們預(yù)計(jì)支出將反彈。

地?zé)?、碳捕獲、利用和儲(chǔ)存(CCUS)、氫、水電、海上和陸上風(fēng)能、核能和太陽(yáng)能行業(yè)的投資將在2023年達(dá)到6200億美元，高于去年的約5600億美元。我們計(jì)算的服務(wù)領(lǐng)域包括項(xiàng)目設(shè)備和材料、工程和施工、油井、運(yùn)營(yíng)和維護(hù)、物流和船舶。

太陽(yáng)能和陸上風(fēng)能將貢獻(xiàn)最大。今年太陽(yáng)能投資支出總額將達(dá)到2500億美元，比2022年僅增長(zhǎng)6%。然而，由于太陽(yáng)能光伏電池的主要成本驅(qū)動(dòng)因素多晶硅的成本下降，產(chǎn)能增長(zhǎng)將比美元投資所顯示的更為可觀。盡管投資價(jià)值增長(zhǎng)相對(duì)不明顯，但裝機(jī)容量預(yù)計(jì)將增長(zhǎng)約25%，達(dá)到1250吉瓦。

各行各業(yè)的支出增長(zhǎng)差異很大。預(yù)計(jì)氫能和CCUS的年增長(zhǎng)率最高，分別增長(zhǎng)149%和136%。到2023年，氫能總支出將接近78億美元，而CCUS投資總額將約為74億美元。

相比之下，水電市場(chǎng)預(yù)計(jì)將在2022年萎縮，而核電投資預(yù)計(jì)將保持相對(duì)平穩(wěn)。陸上風(fēng)電投資預(yù)計(jì)將增長(zhǎng)12%，達(dá)到約2300億美元，而海上風(fēng)電支出預(yù)計(jì)將增長(zhǎng)20%至480億美元。地?zé)岱矫娴闹С鲱A(yù)計(jì)將大幅增長(zhǎng)(約45%)，盡管起點(diǎn)相對(duì)較低。

曹海斌 摘譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Investment In Low-Carbon Energy To Hit $620 Billion This Year

Spending on low-carbon projects will increase by $60 billion this year, 10% higher than 2022, led by wind developments but helped by a significant rise in funding for hydrogen and carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) infrastructure, Rystad Energy research shows. The growth in total spending is a slowdown from recent years – which averaged 20% annual increases – as cost-conscious developers tighten their purse strings after two years of soaring prices.

Investments in green sectors surged 21% in 2022 to overtake related oil and gas spending for the first time, but inflation-spooked developers seem set to rein in spending growth this year. However, as inflationary pressure weakens, we expect spending to rebound.

Investments in the geothermal, carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS), hydrogen, hydropower, offshore and onshore wind, nuclear and solar industries are set to hit $620 billion in 2023, up from about $560 billion last year. Service segments included in our calculations include project equipment and materials, engineering and construction, wells, operations and maintenance, and logistics and vessels.

Solar and onshore wind will contribute the most by a sizable margin. Spending on solar investments will total $250 billion this year, rising only 6% over 2022. However, thanks to the falling cost of polysilicon, the primary cost driver of solar PV cells, capacity growth will be more substantial than dollar investments suggest. Despite a relatively insignificant rise in investment value, installed capacity is expected to swell by roughly 25% to 1,250 gigawatts (GW).

Spending growth will vary widely across industries. Hydrogen and CCUS are expected to see the most significant annual increase, growing 149% and 136%, respectively. Total hydrogen spending will approach $7.8 billion in 2023, while CCUS investments will total about $7.4 billion.

In contrast, the hydropower market is expected to shrink over 2022, while nuclear investments are forecast to stay relatively flat. onshore wind investments are projected to increase by 12% to about $230 billion, while offshore wind spending is expected to jump 20% to $48 billion. Expenditure in geothermal is expected to jump significantly – about 45% – albeit from a relatively low starting position.